Brigham Young

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	69.0
Current RPI:	69
Expected SOS:	94
Current SOS:	94
Current Record:	20-11
Expected Record:	20-11
Current Conf Record:	10-7
Expected Conf Record:	10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC RPI:	47
Expected OOC SOS:	54

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-11	69.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brigham Young.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	81-66	W	100%
11-13	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	80-62	W	100%
11-16	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	N	88-70	L	0%
11-17	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	N	78-68	L	0%
11-21	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	81-62	W	100%
11-24	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	87-75	W	100%
11-28	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	85-60	W	100%
12-1	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	83-62	L	0%
12-8	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	61-58	W	100%
12-15	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	68-78	W	100%
12-21	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	79-64	L	0%
12-27	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	84-54	W	100%
12-29	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	H	97-71	W	100%
1-3	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	92-51	W	100%
1-5	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	76-80	W	100%
1-10	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	76-51	W	100%
1-12	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	64-82	W	100%
1-16	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	69-70	L	0%
1-19	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	74-57	W	100%
1-24	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	83-63	L	0%
1-26	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	67-85	W	100%
1-31	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	61-63	W	100%
2-2	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	96-79	W	100%
2-7	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	74-68	L	0%
2-9	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	87-99	L	0%
2-16	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	86-72	W	100%
2-19	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	70-68	W	100%
2-21	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	64-57	L	0%
2-28	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	65-70	L	0%
3-2	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	70-73	W	100%
3-8	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	N	69-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brigham Young's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Brigham Young's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Brigham Young.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Brigham Young	WCC	26.33	26.33	62.22	62.22	6.44	6.44
San Diego	WCC	5.74	5.74	41.38	41.38	-0.99	-0.99
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.25	4.25	33.33	33.33	-1.42	-1.42
St. Mary's	WCC	4.17	4.17	80.00	80.00	2.50	2.50
Gonzaga	WCC	4.14	4.14	93.33	93.33	3.59	3.59
Pepperdine	WCC	4.11	4.11	40.74	40.74	-0.76	-0.76
Santa Clara	WCC	4.09	4.09	67.86	67.86	1.46	1.46
San Francisco	WCC	4.08	4.08	44.44	44.44	-0.45	-0.45
Portland	WCC	4.06	4.06	32.14	32.14	-1.45	-1.45
Montana	BSky	1.88	1.88	82.14	82.14	1.21	1.21
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.80	1.80	35.48	35.48	-0.52	-0.52
Weber St.	BSky	1.80	1.80	82.76	82.76	1.18	1.18
Utah St.	WAC	1.79	1.79	68.97	68.97	0.68	0.68
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.77	1.77	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Baylor	B12	1.71	1.71	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Texas San Antonio	WAC	1.67	1.67	32.26	32.26	-0.59	-0.59
Iowa St.	B12	1.66	1.66	65.62	65.62	0.52	0.52
Utah	P12	1.64	1.64	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Georgia St.	CAA	1.64	1.64	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.64	1.64	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Florida St.	ACC	1.64	1.64	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.64	1.64	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Notre Dame	BE	1.61	1.61	72.73	72.73	0.73	0.73
Pacific	BW	0.32	0.32	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
Southern Utah	BSky	0.31	0.31	31.03	31.03	-0.12	-0.12
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.29	0.29	32.26	32.26	-0.10	-0.10
Montana St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	17.24	17.24	-0.17	-0.17
Portland St.	BSky	0.26	0.26	23.08	23.08	-0.14	-0.14
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.26	0.26	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.21	0.21	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.20	0.20	75.00	75.00	0.10	0.10
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.19	0.19	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.18	0.18	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
San Jose St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Texas St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
West Virginia	B12	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.16	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.16	0.16	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.16	0.16	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
Kansas St.	B12	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Denver	WAC	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00